| In English
Viche 2007 2

2, 2007

Confrontation between political

1) with pre-term presidential elections (this variant seemed believable for 16% of visitors);

2) with revision of the Constitution and introduction of parliamentary republic (this variant was supported by 11% of examinees);

3) with revision of the Constitution and introduction of presidential republic (a draw, support is also 8%);

4) with pre-term elections to the Verkchovna Rada (24 % of respondents assume such course of events);

5) with formation of a new coalition (such possibility is seen by 12 %);

6) status quo will be maintained, because the present state of matters is convenient for everybody (either pessimists or optimists appeared to be 29% of participants of the poll).

Received data, certainly, can not be considered representational. However, mentioning that visitors of the Viche site are mainly professionally interested in policy people, the received figure is revealing.

Viche also conducted the expert questioning, in which authoritative scientists and political scientists participated, without going into time-serving commentation. We will take into account their opinions.

 

Mykola MYCHALCHENKO,

the corresponding member of the NAS of Ukraine, the president of the Ukrainian academy of political sciences, the Institute of political and ethnonational researches named after I.F. Kuras of the NAS of Ukraine:

Confrontation between political institutes will come to the end in 2007 with abolition of the so called constitutional reform that actually is only the redistribution of plenary powers between the branches of power. It will result in new parliamentary elections at the end of 2007, and possible pre-term presidential elections in 2008.

Such development of events is very believable. But not these events will be a primary aim. The primary aim of structural political forces will be the acceptance of a new Constitution, where the paradigm will be performed by the idea of soft presidential form of government that is roughly called presidential-parliamentary republic in Ukraine.

On the first stage of events a leading role will be played by Yuliya Tymoshenko and BYT. Till the end of 2007 there will be some more two or three political figures, who would be regarded as candidatures on position of the President of Ukraine. It will be problematic for the acting countrys leader to remain among them.

Only three political forces can get to a new parliament two almost equivalent and the third is outsider, but the forming of parliamentary majority will depend on its position.

 

Valeriy BEBYK, doctor of political sciences, pro-rector of the University Ukraine:

Pre-term elections are advantageous neither for the President, nor for the Prime Minister. For Victor Yushchenko because it is needed as much as possible to play the role of a social defender and give an opportunity to reginals to break an affair. And for Victor Yanukovych because far not all power vertical line is taken under control, without regard to violation of gentlemans agreement concerning the orange ministers of defence, internal affairs and foreign affairs. Until now regional leaders remain more or less pro-presidential.

Under such circumstances there is no sense to go to elections. However, the so called adminresource now reminds a pale shade of Kuchma predecessor, the psychology of apparatchik functions in the regionals team. And this warning obviously snaps into action here. And what for one is to go to the electoral competitions, if power is here, next to you: one only has to extend a hand, and it itself will fall out from the weakened hand of the romantically adjusted guarantor of the Constitution!

There are no legal grounds for pre-term elections so far, without regard to the fervent desire of orange, which, however, also has a limit. Their rating (as well as regionals) has noticeably fallen down, and they are afraid of pre-term elections too, because some of them in the case of new electoral competition risk to remain overboard from the parliamentary outscheduled liner.

So, critical mass is formed and is boiling in the protoplasm born in the throes of the modern Ukrainian political elite. Nevertheless the modern Ukrainian state is only fifteen years old.

 

Ivan VARZAR, doctor of political sciences, professor, academician of the UAPS, department of political sciences of the National pedagogical university named after M.P. Drahomanov:

In the presence of only beginnings of civil society, European party system, legal state and only one country political nation such methods of development of political events can work spontaneously and unpredictedly: 1) break-up of coalition pre-term parliamentary elections pre-term presidential elections (and nobody will give the guarantee that presently active figures will get back on a playing board); 2) in case the political reform is abolished (and I see no constitutional and legal grounds for that), a delayed-action mine put by somebody and some time can detonate (for example, the present parliament can abolish the decision of the Verkhovna Rada of previous convocation dated December, 8, 2004); 3) now the thought is spread about the accumulation of discredit on the acting President for the sake of convocation of some public tribunal of legislators and politicians in retirement. This plot can sound like this, Fair tale is lie, but with a suggestion.

 

Maksym ROZUMNYI, candidate of philosophical sciences, manager of department of the National institute of strategic researches:

None of radical intentions of political groups being now either in power, or in opposition, does not have great opportunities to be realized during 2007. There are several factors that testify in favour of such prognosis.

There is a considerable moral fatigue from permanent political mobilization that lasted since 2000 till 2006 in the society, and there is also a large disappointment because of its consequences. Fatigue is a mainly psychological category, if not physiological, that is why any attempts to compensate its influence by slogans, appeals, disclosures of opponents will not have success.

Political groups themselves are not mobilized enough for radical actions, and especially for those that can cause harsh public dissatisfaction. Actions of antiorange coalition certify that there are neither new ideas, nor new faces in its arsenal. In exchange for that the aggregate of strategies of pre-crisis period is realized (power pressing in administrative and economic sphere, entering in the orbit of geopolitical interests of Russia, transition to the parliamentary model), and also slogans and programmatic bases formulated during confrontation itself: antiwestern rhetoric, revision of bases of the Ukrainian national identity, rising of regional patriotism. All these testify the same shortage of innovation, width and strategic of thought, which did not give possibility to the orange team to gain a foothold in power. That is why the coming of reaction will stop at approximately those borders as the beginning of revolution. The temporal lines of demarcation will be set between them, and a trenching period will begin in political war.

To a great extent such course of events is caused by legal contradictions and non-regulations that exist about the key questions of political order of the day.

Abolition of the constitutional reform seems to be an affair very difficult for realization because of the shortage of precedents, absence of the corresponding legislative regulations and legitimate procedures concerning the carrying out of referendum and realization of its decisions. The same can be said about the symmetric threats concerning introduction of Russian, establishment of barriers on the westward integration. The situation of a peculiar clinch is observed in differentiation of plenary powers of the President and the Prime Minister in the field of executive power, where the absence of legal norms can not be compensated only by the desire or determination.

Communists coming out from the coalition is quite believable. But only when the Party of regions has at its disposal the reliable between fractional majority gathered among the former representatives of BYT, Our Ukraine and out of factional.