Epoch of Great Refusal is Waiting for us

In the first decade of ХХІ century the ground changes took place in the world, tendencies and regularities of public development of new quality have appeared. The world entered into the epoch of global crisis which appeared in the result of negative accessory processes conditioned by the development of civilization. The crisis touched all spheres of vital functions of a human-being: environment, biosphere, world economy, social environment, national mutual relations.

For the representatives of schools of civilization and integral macro forecasting the crisis that burst from 2007 was inevitable, supposed and necessary. According to J. Schumpeter it executes the function of “creative destruction”, purges global space from the out-of-date industrial and capitalist system that exhausted its potential of development, and opens it for the postindustrial integral system in order to conclude the sixth cycle of Kondratyev and the technological mode adequate to it.

Mathematical model “World-3” is built for research of five basic global processes: rapid industrialization, growth of amount of population, lack of food stuffs that becomes more acute, exhaustion of supplies of unrenewable resources and degradation of natural environment. Certainly, as well as other model, it contained a lot of simplifications. But the results received appeared to be so interesting that the authors decided to make the public aware of it. Its content is the following:

1. If modern tendencies of growth of population, industrialization, contamination of natural environment, production of food and exhaustion of resources will last during the next century the world will reach the border of growth. As a result it is more likely that the unexpected and uncontrolled slump of the amount of population will take place and the production volume will sharply go down.

2. But this tendency of growth can be changed and economic and ecological stability can be reached. The state of global equilibrium can be set at level that enables to satisfy the basic material necessities of everybody and create equal opportunities for everybody to realize its personal potential.

If the nations of the world choose not the first but the second way, than the earlier they begin to work in order to stand on it the more chances on success they will have because all constituents of the mentioned research - the amount of population, production of food, contamination of natural environment, expense of unrenewable resources – are growing according to the exponential law.

The scenario of reaching the necessary amount is quite simple. At the first stage “gold milliard” lives at the expense of several milliards of people which make “other humanity”. It satisfies its necessities at the expense of the material resources of the whole planet. At this everything is done for reduction of the amount of this “other humanity”, which is easily achieved by “throwing” dirty productions and harmful technologies there. To the same aims the support of the corrupted modes which plunder the money of country, introductions of the programs which foresee reduction of different social measures serve. By the way, Ukraine is one of grounds for “burnishing” of this program of global colonization and extinction.

Built and grounded by him during the years of work in the Conjuncture Institute (1920–1928), which was found according to his project, the theory of cycles in economic, social and cultural development of capitalist countries has become main theoretical achievement of Kondratyev. The scientist stared to work in this direction 90 years ago – in 1919–1920 and already in 1922 printed the first sketch of theory which then he continued to develop.

Period of time in 25 years, that appears in the calculations of Kondratyev, he himself interpreted as a period required for the change of generations: perception and mastering of a new invention requires new young specialists to come because previous generation is usually unable to estimate new (we will remind the well-known remark of M. Planck that he didn’t persuade anybody in the necessity of the concept “quantum” because all who didn’t agree with him had already simply passed away).

Sergiy BILYATSKYI, Angelina DOBROVOLSKA