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Viche 2009 1

1, 2009

The new world in 20 years

The Ukrainian government is often accused in the absence of the long-term development strategy. The unstable political situation and the often changes of the government just dont leave the chance to leave the limits of the current issues, and to concentrate on the problem of structural changes and social-economical reforms. There is a hope, that the global economical crisis will force to do this. Although, there were a lot of such attempts in the increasing of the price for energy products or entry to the COT (???) ???? For instance the world analytical centers have long time ago predicted the lack of food because of the population growth. Then raise the national agricultural sector, build relationships with the future world leaders for the export.

Recently, the National Intelligence Council, that gathers information from the  intelligence departments is the center of an average and the long term strategic analysis under the USA government. This council disclosed the document, that describes the global development tendencies until 2025.

The experts think, that until 2025, the notion of the single global community will not be that topical. They do not predict the next ideology conflict, but the international relations will become more and more pragmatic and will be defined by each of the influence center.

Together with the influence centers change among the sovereign countries, there will be an increase of the non political players role the religious organizations and criminal network.. the experts consider the possibility of reducing the terrorist attacks till 2025, during the economical growth in the Middle East. The most important condition for that will be the youth job placement

And in the most of the Eastern European countries it is expected to see the population reduction. For Russia and Ukraine this figure will be at least 10% - comparing to the last year. The biggest population growth (counting on 240 million people) will be seen in India, where 1,45 billion people will live in one time.

Among the main tendencies in the economics the reinforcement of protectionist measures is expected, since the age of dollar, as the worlds main currency, is going to its end. Together with this, theres a high possibility of new wars for energetic and food recourses.

Oleksiy SYSHCHUK